u.s., china face thorny obstacles to lasting trade peace
2018/12/11 viewers:
the trade truce between the u.s. and china calms their economic battle and opens a brief window for the two nations to explore whether they can bridge deep divides on a range of difficult disputes.
after a weekend dinner between president trump and chinese president xi jinping at a group of 20 summit here, the u.s. postponed its threat to increase tariffs on $200 billion in chinese goods to 25% from 10%. but it set a timeline of only about three months for the two sides to negotiate several issues that have proved largely intractable in the past.
issues still on the table include forced technology transfer by u.s. companies doing business in china; intellectual-property protection that the u.s. wants china to strengthen; nontariff barriers that impede u.s. access to chinese markets; and cyberespionage.
in a sign of the difficulty of the talks ahead, chinese officials haven’t acknowledged they accept the u.s. negotiating agenda or any deadline for talks. nor is it clear what accommodation on any or all of the issues would prove sufficient to hold off the u.s. from raising tariffs when its deadline expires.
there are also irritants in the relationship—such as china’s claims to, and construction on islands in, the south china sea—which are high priorities for the pentagon and u.s. national-security officials but which aren’t on the u.s. negotiating agenda and show little prospect of near-term resolution even if a trade deal is reached.
u.s. officials said that both countries sought a cease-fire because of concerns that tariff hikes would hurt their economies and markets. their economies are bound to play an outsize role in what the negotiations resolve, as well—and prompt fierce lobbying from companies and business organizations with sales at stake.
after a weekend dinner between president trump and chinese president xi jinping at a group of 20 summit here, the u.s. postponed its threat to increase tariffs on $200 billion in chinese goods to 25% from 10%. but it set a timeline of only about three months for the two sides to negotiate several issues that have proved largely intractable in the past.
issues still on the table include forced technology transfer by u.s. companies doing business in china; intellectual-property protection that the u.s. wants china to strengthen; nontariff barriers that impede u.s. access to chinese markets; and cyberespionage.
in a sign of the difficulty of the talks ahead, chinese officials haven’t acknowledged they accept the u.s. negotiating agenda or any deadline for talks. nor is it clear what accommodation on any or all of the issues would prove sufficient to hold off the u.s. from raising tariffs when its deadline expires.
there are also irritants in the relationship—such as china’s claims to, and construction on islands in, the south china sea—which are high priorities for the pentagon and u.s. national-security officials but which aren’t on the u.s. negotiating agenda and show little prospect of near-term resolution even if a trade deal is reached.
u.s. officials said that both countries sought a cease-fire because of concerns that tariff hikes would hurt their economies and markets. their economies are bound to play an outsize role in what the negotiations resolve, as well—and prompt fierce lobbying from companies and business organizations with sales at stake.
“if the economy slows down, it’s very unlikely u.s. will ever ratchet up tariffs,” said david dollar, a brookings institution china scholar who was the treasury department’s representative in beijing in the obama administration. “but if the u.s. economy is roaring and the negotiations are especially frustrating, 90 days from now we could be headed into a serious trade war.”
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